Video:
CNBC: Future of US-Asia Relations
February 2009
The fact that the U.S. secretary of state's first official trip is to Asia
shows that Obama views this region as of inherent importance to the U.S.,
says John Brandon, director of international relations at Asia Foundation.
He talks to CNBC's Maura Fogarty & Rebecca Meehan
US President Barack Obama met with leaders
from the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries
New York Sept. 24, 2010.
In his opening remarks, Obama reiterated thd U.S.intention, as a "Pacific nation",
to play a leadership role in in Asia, and characterized closer relations with ASEAN as essential to that goal.
Obama also confirmed that he would attend the East Asia summit in Jakarta next year.
The 2nd ASEAN-U.S. Summit in New York: What's on the Menu in Manhattan?
President Barack Obama will host 8 of the 10 leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—Brunei
Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—in
New York City on Friday, September 24, at the second U.S.-ASEAN Summit. The meeting underlines renewed U.S. policy
energy being invested in Southeast Asia. Headlines from the discussion will likely focus on three areas:
1. Security alignment—including restatement of a common position on the South China Sea;
2. Economic growth and trade—particularly ASEAN’s leaders are seeking an update from Obama on the health of the
U.S. economy and a read on whether the mid-term U.S. congressional elections might be an inflection point after
which the United States can return to a proactive posture on trade; and
3. Burma—specifically exploring how the United States and ASEAN can encourage Burma’s leaders to create political
space in the November elections and beyond.
The fact that the meeting is taking place in September in the United States is important in that it institutionalizes
renewed U.S. engagement in ASEAN ahead of key steps forward in creating new regional security and trade architecture
in Asia.
On the other hand, the fact that the summit is taking place in New York, not Washington, and without the leader
of ASEAN’s largest country and economy, Indonesia, underlines the fact that while the policy intent is clearly
substantive engagement, there is still much work to be done to align the United States and ASEAN.
Despite the best intentions of the principals, the meeting will certainly be viewed through the prism of perceived
increased tension between China and its Asian neighbors, particularly related to disputed maritime territories.
Q1: Who is meeting and what is the agenda?
A1: President Obama will host the summit over lunch at a hotel in New York City from 12 noon to 2:30 p.m. on
Friday, September 24. Eight of the 10 ASEAN leaders are confirmed to join him, except for President Susilio Bambang
Yudhoyono of Indonesia and Prime Minister Thein Sein of Burma. The ASEAN secretary general, Dr. Surin Pitsuwan,
will also join the meeting. The only surprise is Yudhoyono’s absence, and that is significant (see below). The
Burmese were not expected to send their head of state due to poor relations with the United States and the sanctions
regime currently in place. Indonesia’s President Yudhoyono will be represented by Vice President Boediono, and
Burma’s Prime Minister Thein Sein will be represented by Foreign Minister U Nyan Win. The leaders will be accompanied
in most cases by their ministers of foreign affairs, ambassadors to the United States and/or the United Nations,
and other senior officials.
Q2: Why isn’t President Yudhoyono attending, and what are the implications of his absence?
A2: President Yudhuyono notified the White House that he could not accept President Obama’s invitation to come
to New York due to domestic issues in Jakarta. Insiders confirm that Yudhoyono decided he could not come to New
York because of a confluence of issues—including the fact that Obama has had to postpone planned travel to Indonesia
three times since taking office and the short notice given by the White House (not quite a month in advance of
the meeting). Had the summit been held in Washington, D.C., and in early October, so Yudhoyono and the other ASEAN
leaders could have come on either side of their long planned visit to Brussels for the Asia-Europe Summit, the
Indonesian leader would probably have come.
Yudhoyono’s absence sends a strong signal that although the U.S.-ASEAN relationship is moving in the right direction,
there is work still to be done to improve alignment. Indonesia is ASEAN’s largest country and has the largest economy,
both more than twice the size of the next member. It is also ASEAN’s incoming chairman for 2011. It is likely that
the United States and ASEAN will get back on track next year when Indonesia hosts the third U.S.-ASEAN Summit,
and after President Obama finally is able to make his long-awaited visit to Indonesia. There are quiet plans for
him to visit Jakarta during his Asia trip after U.S. mid-term elections in November. That trip would include India,
Indonesia, Korea for the G-20 Summit, and Japan for the APEC Leaders Summit. In sum, Yudhoyono’s absence doesn’t
fully diminish the importance of the meeting in New York on Friday, but it lays down the marker that the U.S.-ASEAN
relationship is trending well, but remains a work in progress. (I explore the gap between U.S. policy intentions
toward ASEAN and the realities of domestic politics revealed by Yudhoyono’s absence from New York on the CSIS Southeast
Asia policy blog at http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/08/us-asean-summit-in-new-york-gut-check-time/.)
Q3: What is the on the security agenda and will the South China Sea be a focus?
A3: The United States and ASEAN are working with other countries, including Australia, China, India, Japan,
Korea, New Zealand, and Russia, to create new regional security architecture in Asia. To this end, the United States
and Russia will be invited to join the East Asia Summit (EAS) this October during its meeting in Hanoi. Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton will represent the United States at the meeting and accept the invitation. The United
States will then ideally be represented by President Obama at the next EAS hosted by Indonesia in 2011 (it is likely
that the U.S.-ASEAN Summit will be held in proximity). As part of its calculus in deciding to join the EAS, the
United States recognized that it must strengthen its security and political ties with ASEAN and invest in supporting
ASEAN’s self-defined goals to firm up its foundation through economic, political, and socioeconomic integration,
as outlined in the ASEAN Charter. To this end, the United States has been moving to normalize military ties with
Indonesia and to enhance military relations with Vietnam, as well as committing to join the ASEAN Defense Minister
Meeting + 8 (which includes the same countries listed above who are/will be members of the EAS).
In this context, one of the existential challenges for Asia is to create structures and use diplomacy to encourage
China’s peaceful rise as a major world power. The South China Sea represents a major challenge in this process.
China has been very effective in its “charm offensive,” begun during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s,
writing a script as an engaged and committed neighbor promising economic dynamism through expanded trade and investment
and regional economic integration. However, China’s geopolitical interests are the other side of that coin. China’s
definition of its “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea, in response to Secretary of State Clinton’s
reiteration of long-standing U.S. goals for maritime dispute resolution and freedom of navigation in the area based
on international law and a multilateral approach, has uncovered atavistic anxieties about China’s intentions among
the Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, ASEAN has welcomed a strong U.S. voice on security concerns in the South
China Sea, and this has come at a time—ahead of a Chinese political cycle that will identify the country’s next
generation of leaders in 2012—of heightened nationalism in China.
Neither the United States nor ASEAN wants to provoke Chinese nationalists, but both recognize
the importance of being firm and sustaining a commitment to a multilateral approach to dispute resolution. Therefore,
it is likely that the summit in New York will result in a joint statement that addresses the issue by reiterating
the intent and direction of Secretary Clinton’s remarks at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi with a focus
on China.
Q4: How about economic growth and trade?
A4: ASEAN is concerned about the health and direction of the U.S. economy and hopes that President Obama can
assure them that a recovery is underway and that he will be able to move the United States toward a more proactive
posture on trade after the U.S. mid-term elections in November. These issues are fundamentally important to ASEAN
because the United States is its largest overseas market (particularly when you consider the fact that many ASEAN
exports go through China as part of a supply chain that ends up with products delivered to the United States),
and because the United States remains one of the top and qualitatively most valuable sources of investment and
technology for the region. ASEAN is collectively the most trade dependent formal grouping of nations in the world,
with trade accounting for nearly 100 percent of aggregate gross domestic product. So if trade stagnates, ASEAN
is the global canary in the coal mine and it suffers first and most significantly.
ASEAN will be watching the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement closely as the benchmark indicator for whether Obama
will use the political chits necessary to kick-start trade and make the case to Americans that long-term recovery
is dependent on U.S. engagement in ASEAN, Asia, and the world. ASEAN is the United States’ fourth-largest overseas
market and one that promises high-level growth for the coming years. ASEAN wants to know if the mid-term elections
will be an inflection point for the U.S. stance on global trade. (Read more on the disconnect between policy and
politics on trade with ASEAN in cogitASIA at http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/20/making-the-case-to-americans-asean-jobs/.)
Q5: What about Burma?
A5: With Burmese elections coming up on November 7, Burma is sure to be high on the summit agenda—at least for
the Unites States. While ASEAN would prefer not to have to carry the weight of Burma’s cloistered and intransigent
military junta, it recognizes that having made the commitment to bring Burma into its membership it must work with
the United States and others to try to encourage the creation of political space there. The Obama administration
deserves credit for its courage and foresight in espousing an engagement strategy toward Burma that allowed it
to reengage with ASEAN and hold meetings such as this summit. While the engagement has not produced results in
Burma, the United States has changed its paradigm with ASEAN. The administration can and likely will tighten sanctions
on Burma by focusing on its leaders, their families, and companies they are associated with—measures outlined in
the Lantos Act. ASEAN needs to do its part and increase its normative focus on Burma to pressure the regime to
create more political openness so it can truly engage in the core elements of integration defined in the ASEAN
Charter. If ASEAN begins to focus on Burma, pressure may increase on China and India to refocus their current mercantilist
and military policies that enable the hard-line domestic political stance of the junta and to play a role as responsible
stakeholders encouraging positive change in the country.
Q6: What next?
A6: ASEAN hopes that President Obama will announce his candidate as the first U.S. ambassador to ASEAN to be
resident in Jakarta. A candidate’s name is reportedly pending review and due diligence, though it is not likely
that name can be announced on Friday. Additionally, the United States and ASEAN are expecting to name an Eminent
Persons Group (EPG) to provide guidance and leadership for the relationship. These names have also not been announced
yet.
After the New York summit, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in visiting Hanoi for the EAS, and Secretary
of Defense Robert Gates will visit Vietnam for the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting + 8. President Obama is planning
to visit Indonesia in November as mentioned above.
Ernest Bower is a senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies in Washington, D.C.
Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt
institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS
does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication
should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
By Ernest Z. Bower, Senior Adviser and Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program
The 2nd US ASEAN Summit in New York on September 24 is an important meeting but there are questions regarding who
will attend. President Susilio Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) of Indonesia, the incoming chair of ASEAN, hasn’t confirmed
his attendance yet. Vietnam is still considering whether President Nguyen Minh Triet, who as head of government
traditionally represents his country at the United Nations or Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will attend. Press
reports from Bangkok have misreported that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is uncertain about attending – we understand
he is confirmed, as are all the remaining heads of government from ASEAN except the Burmese who have opted to send
their Foreign Minister — no surprise given the threat enhanced sanctions on Burmese leaders and the UN moving toward
a Commission of Inquiry (COI) for crimes against humanity.
The real issue is SBY’s decision. He has the power to send a strong signal to his fellow ASEAN leaders, the United
States and all of Asia. Should he decide to pass up President Barack Obama’s invitation to join the Summit in New
York, there will be serious questions about where US-ASEAN relations are heading. The trajectory coming into New
York looks very positive, building on a strong foundation and strengthening links between the US and ASEAN head
of key meetings this Fall including the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting + 8 (ADMM) in Vietnam,
the G-20 Summit in Seoul and the APEC Summit in Yokohama. Substantively, US ASEAN ties are sound and would remain
so even if SBY doesn’t attend, but the signal of not attending has the potential to do real damage over time.
A strong US ASEAN foundation is vital as the region steps into new regional security and trade architecture. The
table is set, and it is very important for Indonesia to demonstrate leadership. Every effort should be made to
ensure SBY makes the trip to New York, including direct intervention by other leaders, especially President Obama.
A call to Jakarta would be helpful. The truth is that a personal touch is due. President Obama has had every intention
to visit Indonesia, but has been frustrated by schedule and domestic politics three times. Additionally, it is
true that the White House was not able to make a decision on date and venue for the Summit until recently, giving
ASEAN leaders short notice for such a major trip. The ASEAN heads of government had already scheduled a visit to
Europe in early October for the Asia Europe Summit (ASEM), so the invitation requires an additional overseas trip
to kick off an already packed second half of 2010. ASEAN may be disappointed too, that the Summit is being held
in New York instead of Washington, D.C.
Still, the opportunity to institutionalize the US ASEAN Summit and hold the meeting on American soil within a year
of the inaugural summit make the trip worth the effort. There are real issues to discuss including headliners such
as security and trade, and getting alignment on these and other issues. Relationships take commitment and energy
on both sides. Exploring the implications of holding a Summit without SBY or postponing the Summit should be a
sobering proposition to all the leaders involved. Here’s to everyone doing what is needed to make the meeting work.
It is gut check time for the US ASEAN relationship as we approach September 24 in New York.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, center, gesturing
as Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono looks on at the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Vietnam in April.
A spokesman says Yudhoyono is unlikely to be able
to attend next Thursday's ASEAN summit in New York
called by United States President Barack Obama. (AFP Photo)
Jakarta. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is unlikely to attend a summit of Southeast Asian leaders
called by US President Barack Obama this month in New York, a spokesman said on Wednesday.
The failure of the leader of the region’s biggest economy and the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country
to attend the summit will be a blow to Obama’s efforts to reach out to the strategically important region.
Officials blamed the short notice given for the summit, which was announced on Sept. 3, and Yudhoyono’s prior engagements.
“The US-ASEAN summit invitation was given in short notice. The president’s agenda at that time was fixed earlier
this year,” spokesman Teuku Faizasyah said.
The White House has said Obama will hold talks with leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations
in New York on September 24, at the time of the annual United Nations General Assembly.
The summit is Obama’s latest attempt to reinvigorate US policy towards the rapidly developing region, where US
primacy is seen by some as waning in the face of China’s growing economic and military might.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will likely skip the US-ASEAN summit to be held on the sidelines of the UN meeting
in New York on Sept. 24, the Foreign Ministry says.
Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah said the President had already made “earlier commitments” and did not plan to
attend the UN General Assembly meeting in New York from Sept. 20-28. “Vice President [Boediono] will most likely
be in attendance,” he told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.
Teuku was quick to dismiss speculation the President may have decided not to visit the US after US President Barack
Obama called off his planned visits to Indonesia — where he spent part of his childhood — this year.
“President Yudhoyono has items on the national agenda that could not be set aside,” Faizasyah said, adding that
the invitation to the summit was given at short notice.
By FOSTER KLUG
The Associated Press
Friday, September 24, 2010
NEW YORK -- U.S. President Barack Obama and Southeast Asian leaders sent China a firm message Friday over territorial
disputes between Beijing and its neighbors, calling for freedom of navigation in seas that China claims as its
own.
Obama pledged to take a strong role in regional affairs, something welcomed by leaders in the fast-growing region.
The meeting between Obama and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations comes as China, the other superpower
in the region, and its neighbors bicker over territorial claims in surrounding seas.
According to a readout of the meeting provided by the White House, the leaders "agreed on the importance of
peaceful resolution of disputes, freedom of navigation, regional stability and respect for international law, including
in the South China Sea."
China also has differences with Japan in the East China Sea, although tensions between the neighbors were eased
after Japan released a Chinese fishing boat captain involved in a collision near disputed islands. Japanese Prime
Minister Naoto Kan called Friday for calm in ties between the countries.
Southeast Asian leaders have welcomed Washington's presence in the region.
Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet said ahead of the leaders' meeting that U.S.-ASEAN ties are crucial "to
the security, peace and development in the region."
Obama spoke of strengthening ties and of "unprecedented cooperation between ASEAN and the United States."
"As a Pacific nation, the United States has an enormous stake in the people and the future of Asia,"
Obama said. "We need partnerships with Asian nations to meet the challenges of growing our economy, preventing
proliferation and addressing climate change."
"The United States intends to play a leadership role in Asia," Obama said.
That could cause friction with China, the region's traditional heavyweight.
Beijing was furious after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a regional security forum in Vietnam in
July that the peaceful resolution of disputes over the Spratly and Paracel island groups was an American national
interest. Beijing said Washington was interfering in an Asian regional issue.
The United States worries the disputes could hurt access to one of the world's busiest commercial sea lanes
China claims all the South China Sea, but Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines have also laid
territorial claims. Aside from rich fishing areas, the region is believed to have huge oil and natural gas deposits.
The contested islands straddle busy sea lanes that are a crucial conduit for oil and other resources fueling China's
fast-expanding economy.
On Thursday, the president of the Philippines, Benigno Aquino III, welcomed a strong U.S. role in the region. He
said ASEAN would be unified should China use its weight as regional superpower in territorial disputes.
In a reference to China, Aquino said: "Hopefully we don't hear the phrase 'South China Sea' with reference
to it being their sea."
Obama also spoke Friday of growing U.S.-ASEAN trade.
"The region is home to some of our largest trading partners and buys many of our exports, supporting millions
of American jobs," Obama said. "American exports to ASEAN countries are growing twice as fast as they
are to other regions, so Southeast Asia will be important to reaching my goal of doubling American exports."
Photo: ASSOCIATED PRESS
President Barack Obama walks past ASEAN leaders, from left, Philippines President Benigno Aquino III, Malaysian
Prime Minister Najib Razak, Myanmar Foreign Minister Nyan Win, as he arrives for a group photo and luncheon in
New York, Friday, Sept. 24, 2010.
President Barack Obama and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have met in New York
on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly session. The U.S. and ASEAN committed to strengthening relations,
and underscored the growing strategic importance of the relationship.
A White House readout of what was only the second U.S.-ASEAN summit - the first was in Singapore last year - focused
on economic as well as global and regional issues, including non-proliferation, counter-terrorism efforts and climate
change.
The statement said the prosperity of the U.S. and ASEAN are "increasingly intertwined", noting that ASEAN
economies together comprise the fourth largest export market for the U.S., with $146 billion in total two-way trade
in 2009.
ASEAN leaders briefed Mr. Obama on the planned ASEAN Economic Community, to establish a single market and production
base by 2015. President Obama, the statement said, pledged additional help in support of this goal.
The president said the U.S. as a Pacific nation has an enormous stake in the ASEAN region. "We need partnerships
with Asian nations to meet the challenges of our growing economy, preventing proliferation and addressing climate
change. As president I have therefore made it clear that the U.S. intends to play a leadership role in Asia. So
we have strengthened old alliances, we have deepened new partnerships, as we are doing with China, and we have
re-engaged with regional organizations, including ASEAN," he said.
Mr. Obama said he has accepted the ASEAN invitation to attend the East Asia Summit, scheduled for Jakarta next
year. That would be Mr. Obama's second visit to Indonesia as president, after one scheduled for November on his
way to a G-20 Summit in South Korea and the APEC Summit in Japan.
Vietnam's President, Nguyen Minh Triet, spoke through an interpreter as the current chairman of ASEAN. "Vietnam
and ASEAN always support the deepening of the relations between ASEAN and the U.S., bilaterally and multilaterally
and we want to take our relations to the next level toward greater comprhensiveness and more substance for the
peace, stability and development or our region," he said.
Though not mentioned in the brief public speeches, North Korea, and Burma figured prominently in Friday's talks.
The White House said Mr. Obama renewed his call on Burma's military government to embark on a process of national
reconciliation by releasing all political prisoners, including democracy figure Aung San Suu Kyi, and holding free
and fair elections in November.
In a separate joint statement, ASEAN leaders reiterated a call for the elections in Burma to be conducted in a
free, fair, inclusive and transparent manner in order to be credible for the international community.
They also welcomed what they called the continued U.S. engagement with Burma's military government, saying they
hope this will encourage Burma to undertake political and economic reforms to facilitate national reconciliation.
On North Korea, the U.S. and ASEAN reaffirm the importance of implementing U.N. Security Council resolutions. They
call on Pyongyang to implement Six Party Talks commitments to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear
programs and return, at an early date, to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
The joint statement said Obama and ASEAN leaders also agreed on the importance of peaceful resolution of disputes
in the region, freedom of navigation,stability, and respect for international law, including the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other international maritime law. The White House summary said this
included the South China Sea.
The White House noted on Friday that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will take part in an initial East Asia
Summit meeting in Hanoi at the end of October, while Defense Secretary Robert Gates will attend a meeting of Asia-Pacific
defense ministers in Hanoi, also next month.
As the US and ASEAN forge closer ties based on growing mutual strategic interests, the meeting of their leaders
in New York last week indicated that they are likely to proceed as partners rather than becoming allies.
Political and security issues, which usually underpin alliances between nations, are part of this evolving relationship,
but they take a backseat to economic and soft power issues, suggesting that a partnership is in the making rather
than an alliance, similar to those the US has forged with Japan and South Korea.
The rise of China as a major global power dictates that the US and ASEAN have mutual strategic interests in deepening
and intensifying their relationship. The two sides however do not necessarily see eye-to-eye on how to deal with
the potential threat of China, and this somehow defines the nature of their relationship.
The New York summit avoided making any direct references to disputes that China has had with some ASEAN member
countries because of overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. An earlier draft of the communique,
leaked to and reported by The Associated Press, had the leaders opposing the use of force in disputed waters.
This reference was struck by the time the statement reached US President Barack Obama and his ASEAN guests. The
final statement that came out of the Friday summit made a mild call for the preservation of security in international
sea lanes and for peaceful resolutions of any conflicts.
“We took care of that at the senior officials meeting,” one ASEAN diplomat said with regard to the absence of a
mention of the South China Sea disputes in the statement.
This is a significant shift from the position that US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton took during a meeting
with her ASEAN counterparts in Hanoi in July, when she virtually waded the US into the South China Sea disputes,
and staked US interests in the region by offering Washington’s mediation assistance. Beijing responded by telling
the US to stay away from the issue.
A joint statement critical of China would have given the impression that leaders meeting in New York were ganging
up on Beijing, in which case the US-ASEAN relationship would be headed towards an alliance. Instead, the statement
focused on soft power issues as the chief means of building ties.
Following the suggestion of Vice President Boediono, who represented Indonesia in New York, the leaders agreed
to focus on a short list of priorities for the US and ASEAN to work on. The three areas chosen were education,
trade and forestry.
More than anything else, the two-hour luncheon meeting was symbolic of the US commitment to engage ASEAN countries
even more. Obama took the initiative to call for the meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly after
attending the first ever ASEAN-US summit in Singapore in November 2009.
The summit “institutionalizes American engagement in ASEAN on equal footing with other major partners such as China,
India and others,” wrote Ernie Bower, the Southeast Asian specialist in the Washington-based Center for Strategic
and International Studies.
Indonesia, which will chair ASEAN in 2011, is almost certain to continue this tradition and hold the third summit.
Besides the direct benefits from the economic relations that the United States gains from its ties with Southeast
Asian countries, ASEAN is also helping Washington gain admission to the East Asia Summit (EAS), currently an annual
event involving leaders from the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.
The EAS, which is becoming the chosen mechanism to prepare for the emergence of an Asia-Pacific community, is largely
driven by ASEAN, which decides who participates and who does not. At this year’s meeting, the summit will likely
decide on admitting the United States along with Russia. Clinton will return to Hanoi next month and Obama has
already committed to making his debut at the EAS, to be held in Jakarta, in 2011.
ASEAN welcomes the increasing engagement of the United States in Southeast Asia and in the larger East Asian region,
but it wants to make sure that Washington plays by the same rules as others. Clinton signed the Instrument of Accession
to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in July, which binds the US to the promotion of peace and stability as a
precondition to joining the EAS.
ASEAN may not be a US ally in the way Japan and Korea are, but it is surely becoming an indispensable partner for
strategic US interests in Asia.
An alliance with the US would invoke memories of the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), set up in
1955 to align the US, other Western powers, Thailand and the Philippines to counter communist influence in the
region, which was then split by ideological differences.
The differences between partners and allies may not be mere semantics, for one suggests warmth and the other, more
business-like relationships. When allies meet, presumably they drink beer. When partners meet, they drink coffee.
ASEAN and the US should stick to coffee. Next time their leaders meet, they can always retreat to Starbucks.
By Ernie Z. Bower, Senior Adviser & Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program
SUMMARY
US President Barack Obama will host eight of the ten leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN)[i] in New York on Friday, September 24, 2010 at the 2nd US ASEAN Summit. The meeting underlines renewed
American policy energy being invested in Southeast Asia. Headlines from the discussion should focus on three areas:
1. Security alignment including a restatement of a common position on the South China Sea;
2. Economic growth and trade – particularly ASEAN’s leaders seeking an update from the President on the health
of the US economy and a read on whether the mid-term US Congressional elections might be an inflection point after
which the US can return to a proactive posture on trade; and
3. Burma – specifically exploring a way forward on how the US and ASEAN can encourage Burma’s leaders to introduce
political space in the November elections or beyond.
The fact the meeting is taking place in September in the United States is important in that it institutionalizes
renewed US engagement in ASEAN ahead of key steps forward in the creating of regional security and trade architecture
in Asia.
On the other hand, the fact that the Summit is taking place in New York not Washington and without the leader of
ASEAN’s largest country and economy, Indonesia, underlines the fact that while policy intent is clearly substantive
engagement, there is still much work to be done to align the US and ASEAN.
Despite the best intentions of the principles, the meeting will certainly be viewed through the prism of perceived
increased tension between China and its Asian neighbors particularly related to disputed maritime territories.
Here are some Critical Questions about the Summit and what we can expect.
Q 1 > Who, where & when – who is meeting and what is the agenda?
A 1 > President Obama will host the Summit over lunch at a famous hotel in Manhattan in New York City from 12
noon to 2:30 PM on Friday, September 24, 2010. Eight of the ten ASEAN leaders are confirmed to join him except
for President Susilio Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia and Prime Minister Thein Sein of Burma. ASEAN Secretary General
Dr. Surin Pitsuwan will also join the meeting. The only surprise is Yudhoyono’s absence and that is significant
(see below). The Burmese were not expected to send their head of state due to poor relations with the United States
and the sanctions regime currently in place. President Yudhoyono will be represented by Indonesia’s Vice President
Boediono and Prime Minister Thein Sein will be represented by Burma’s Foreign Minister U Nyan Win. The leaders
will be accompanied in most cases by their ministers of foreign affairs, ambassadors to the United States and or
the United Nations, and other senior officials.
Q2 > Why isn’t President Yudhoyono attending and what are the implications of his absence?
A2 > President Yudhuyono notified the White House that he could not accept President Obama’s invitation to come
to New York due to domestic issues that need to be attended in Jakarta. Insiders confirm that Yudhoyono decided
he could not come to New York due to a confluence of issues including the fact that President Obama has had to
postpone planned travel to Indonesia three times since taking office and the short notice given by the White House
(not quite a month in advance of the meeting). Had the Summit been scheduled in Washington, DC – America’s capital
– and in early October so Yudhoyono and the other ASEAN leaders might have been able to come on either side of
their long planned visit to Brussels for the Asia Europe Summit, the Indonesian leader would probably have come.
Yudhoyono’s absence sends a strong signal that although the US ASEAN relationship is moving in the right direction,
there is work still to be done to improve alignment. Indonesia is ASEAN’s largest country and has the largest economy,
both more than twice as large as the next member. It is also ASEAN’s incoming Chairman for 2011. It is likely that
the US and ASEAN will get back on track next year when Indonesia hosts the 3rd US ASEAN Summit, and after President
Obama finally is able to make his long-awaited visit to Indonesia. There are quiet plans for him to visit Jakarta
during his Asia trip after US mid-term elections in November. That trip would include India, Indonesia, Korea for
the G-20 Summit and Japan for the APEC Leaders Summit. In sum, Yudhoyono’s absence doesn’t fully diminish the importance
of the meeting in New York on Friday, but it lays down the marker that the US ASEAN relationship is trending well,
but remains a work in progress. I explore the gap between the US policy intentions toward ASEAN and the realities
of domestic politics revealed by Yudhoyono’s absence in the US on the CSIS Asia policy blog at http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/08/us-asean-summit-in-new-york-gut-check-time/
Q3> What is the on the security agenda and will the South China Sea be a focus?
A3 > The United States and ASEAN are working with other countries including Australia, China, India, Japan,
Korea, New Zealand and Russia to create new regional security architecture in Asia. To this end, the US and Russia
will be invited to join the East Asia Summit (EAS) this October during the EAS meeting in Hanoi. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton will represent the United States at this meeting and accept the invitation. The US will then ideally
be represented by President Obama at the next EAS hosted by Indonesia in 2011 (it is likely that the US ASEAN Summit
will be held in proximity). As part of its calculus in deciding to join the EAS, the US recognized that it must
strengthen its security and political ties with ASEAN and invest in supporting ASEAN’s self defined goals to firm
its foundation through the economic, political and socio-economic integration as outlined in the ASEAN Charter.
To this end, the US has been moving to normalize military ties with Indonesia and enhancing military relations
with Vietnam as well as committing to join the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting + 8 (which includes the same countries
listed above who are/will be members of the EAS).
In this context, one of the existential challenges for Asia is to create structures and use diplomacy to encourage
China’s peaceful rise as a major world power. The South China Sea represents a major challenge in this process.
China has been very effective in its “charm offensive” begun during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990’s
– writing a script of an engaged and committed neighbor promising economic dynamism through expanded trade and
investment and regional economic integration. However, China’s geopolitical interests are the other side of that
coin. China’s definition of its “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea in response to Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton’s reiteration of long-standing US goals for maritime dispute resolution and freedom of navigation
in the area based on international law and a multilateral approach has uncovered atavistic anxieties about China’s
intentions among the Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, ASEAN has welcomed a strong US voice on security concerns
in the South China Sea and this has come at a time, ahead of a the Chinese political cycle which will identify
the country’s next generation of leaders in 2012, of heightened nationalism in China.
Nether the US nor ASEAN want to provoke Chinese nationalists, but both recognize the importance of being firm and
sustaining a commitment to a multilateral approach to dispute resolution. Therefore, it is likely that the Summit
in New York will result in a Joint Statement that addresses the issue by reiterating the intent and direction of
Secretary Clinton’s remarks at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi with a tone of provocation or focus on China.
Q 4 > How about economic growth and trade?
A 4 > ASEAN is concerned about thehealth and direction of the US economy and hopes President Obama can assure
them that the recovery is underway and that he will be able to move the US toward a more proactive posture on trade
after the US mid-term elections in November. These issues are fundamentally important to ASEAN because the US is
its largest overseas market (particularly when you factor in the fact that many ASEAN exports go through China
as part of a supply chain that ends up with products delivered to the United States) and the US remains one of
the top and qualitatively most valuable sources of investment and technology for the region. ASEAN is collectively
the most trade dependent formal grouping of nations in the world with trade accounting for nearly 100 percent of
aggregate gross domestic product. So if trade stagnates, ASEAN is the global canary in the coal mine and its suffers
first and most significantly.
ASEAN will be watching the US Korea Free Trade Agreement closely as the benchmark indicator for whether President
Obama will use the political chits necessary to kick start trade and make the case to Americans that long term
recovery is dependent on US engagement in ASEAN, Asia and the world. ASEAN is America’s fourth largest overseas
market and one that promises high level growth for the coming years. ASEAN wants to know if the mid-term elections
will be an inflection point for the US stance on global trade. Read more on the disconnect between policy and politics
on trade with ASEAN in cogitASIA here http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/20/making-the-case-to-americans-asean-jobs/.
Q 5 > What about Burma?
A5 > With Burmese elections coming up on November 7, Burma is sure to be high on the agenda – at least for the
Americans. While ASEAN would prefer not to have to carry the weight of Burma’s cloistered and intransigent military
junta, it recognizes that having made the commitment to bring Burma into its membership it must work with the US
and others to try to encourage the creation of political space there. The Obama Administration deserves credit
for its courage and foresight in espousing an engagement strategy toward Burma that allowed it to reengage with
ASEAN and hold meetings such as this Summit. While the engagement has not produced results in Burma, the US has
changed its paradigm with ASEAN. The Administration can and likely will tighten sanctions on Burma by focusing
on its leaders, their families and companies they are associated with – measure outlined in the Lantos Act. ASEAN
needs to do its part and increase its normative focus on Burma to pressure the regime to create more political
openness to it can truly engage in the core elements of integration defined in the ASEAN Charter. If ASEAN begins
to focus on Burma, pressure may increase on China and India to refocus current mercantilist and military policies
that enable the hard-line domestic political stance of the junta and play a role as responsible stakeholders in
encouraging positive change in the country.
Q 6 > What next?
A6 > ASEAN hopes President Obama will announce his candidate to the first US Ambassador to ASEAN to be resident
in Jakarta? A candidate’s name is reportedly pending review and due diligence though it is not likely that name
can be announced on Friday. Additionally, the US and ASEAN are expecting to name an Eminent Person Group (EPG)
to provide guidance and leadership for the relationship. These names have also not been announced yet.
After the New York Summit, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in visiting Hanoi for the EAS and in October
and Secretary of Defense Gates will visit Vietnam for the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting + 8 (ADMM + 8). President
Obama is planning to visit Indonesia in November as mentioned above.
By FOSTER KLUG
The Associated Press
Friday, September 24, 2010
NEW YORK -- U.S. President Barack Obama and Southeast Asian leaders sent China a firm message Friday over territorial
disputes between Beijing and its neighbors, calling for freedom of navigation in seas that China claims as its
own.
Obama pledged to take a strong role in regional affairs, something welcomed by leaders in the fast-growing region.
The meeting between Obama and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations comes as China, the other superpower
in the region, and its neighbors bicker over territorial claims in surrounding seas.
According to a readout of the meeting provided by the White House, the leaders "agreed on the importance of
peaceful resolution of disputes, freedom of navigation, regional stability and respect for international law, including
in the South China Sea."
China also has differences with Japan in the East China Sea, although tensions between the neighbors were eased
after Japan released a Chinese fishing boat captain involved in a collision near disputed islands. Japanese Prime
Minister Naoto Kan called Friday for calm in ties between the countries.
Southeast Asian leaders have welcomed Washington's presence in the region.
Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet said ahead of the leaders' meeting that U.S.-ASEAN ties are crucial "to
the security, peace and development in the region."
Obama spoke of strengthening ties and of "unprecedented cooperation between ASEAN and the United States."
"As a Pacific nation, the United States has an enormous stake in the people and the future of Asia,"
Obama said. "We need partnerships with Asian nations to meet the challenges of growing our economy, preventing
proliferation and addressing climate change."
"The United States intends to play a leadership role in Asia," Obama said.
That could cause friction with China, the region's traditional heavyweight.
Beijing was furious after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a regional security forum in Vietnam in
July that the peaceful resolution of disputes over the Spratly and Paracel island groups was an American national
interest. Beijing said Washington was interfering in an Asian regional issue.
The United States worries the disputes could hurt access to one of the world's busiest commercial sea lanes
China claims all the South China Sea, but Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines have also laid
territorial claims. Aside from rich fishing areas, the region is believed to have huge oil and natural gas deposits.
The contested islands straddle busy sea lanes that are a crucial conduit for oil and other resources fueling China's
fast-expanding economy.
On Thursday, the president of the Philippines, Benigno Aquino III, welcomed a strong U.S. role in the region. He
said ASEAN would be unified should China use its weight as regional superpower in territorial disputes.
In a reference to China, Aquino said: "Hopefully we don't hear the phrase 'South China Sea' with reference
to it being their sea."
Obama also spoke Friday of growing U.S.-ASEAN trade.
"The region is home to some of our largest trading partners and buys many of our exports, supporting millions
of American jobs," Obama said. "American exports to ASEAN countries are growing twice as fast as they
are to other regions, so Southeast Asia will be important to reaching my goal of doubling American exports."
Photo: ASSOCIATED PRESS
President Barack Obama walks past ASEAN leaders, from left, Philippines President Benigno Aquino III, Malaysian
Prime Minister Najib Razak, Myanmar Foreign Minister Nyan Win, as he arrives for a group photo and luncheon in
New York, Friday, Sept. 24, 2010.
President Barack Obama and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have met in New York
on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly session. The U.S. and ASEAN committed to strengthening relations,
and underscored the growing strategic importance of the relationship.
A White House readout of what was only the second U.S.-ASEAN summit - the first was in Singapore last year - focused
on economic as well as global and regional issues, including non-proliferation, counter-terrorism efforts and climate
change.
The statement said the prosperity of the U.S. and ASEAN are "increasingly intertwined", noting that ASEAN
economies together comprise the fourth largest export market for the U.S., with $146 billion in total two-way trade
in 2009.
ASEAN leaders briefed Mr. Obama on the planned ASEAN Economic Community, to establish a single market and production
base by 2015. President Obama, the statement said, pledged additional help in support of this goal.
The president said the U.S. as a Pacific nation has an enormous stake in the ASEAN region. "We need partnerships
with Asian nations to meet the challenges of our growing economy, preventing proliferation and addressing climate
change. As president I have therefore made it clear that the U.S. intends to play a leadership role in Asia. So
we have strengthened old alliances, we have deepened new partnerships, as we are doing with China, and we have
re-engaged with regional organizations, including ASEAN," he said.
Mr. Obama said he has accepted the ASEAN invitation to attend the East Asia Summit, scheduled for Jakarta next
year. That would be Mr. Obama's second visit to Indonesia as president, after one scheduled for November on his
way to a G-20 Summit in South Korea and the APEC Summit in Japan.
Vietnam's President, Nguyen Minh Triet, spoke through an interpreter as the current chairman of ASEAN. "Vietnam
and ASEAN always support the deepening of the relations between ASEAN and the U.S., bilaterally and multilaterally
and we want to take our relations to the next level toward greater comprhensiveness and more substance for the
peace, stability and development or our region," he said.
Though not mentioned in the brief public speeches, North Korea, and Burma figured prominently in Friday's talks.
The White House said Mr. Obama renewed his call on Burma's military government to embark on a process of national
reconciliation by releasing all political prisoners, including democracy figure Aung San Suu Kyi, and holding free
and fair elections in November.
In a separate joint statement, ASEAN leaders reiterated a call for the elections in Burma to be conducted in a
free, fair, inclusive and transparent manner in order to be credible for the international community.
They also welcomed what they called the continued U.S. engagement with Burma's military government, saying they
hope this will encourage Burma to undertake political and economic reforms to facilitate national reconciliation.
On North Korea, the U.S. and ASEAN reaffirm the importance of implementing U.N. Security Council resolutions. They
call on Pyongyang to implement Six Party Talks commitments to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear
programs and return, at an early date, to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
The joint statement said Obama and ASEAN leaders also agreed on the importance of peaceful resolution of disputes
in the region, freedom of navigation,stability, and respect for international law, including the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other international maritime law. The White House summary said this
included the South China Sea.
The White House noted on Friday that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will take part in an initial East Asia
Summit meeting in Hanoi at the end of October, while Defense Secretary Robert Gates will attend a meeting of Asia-Pacific
defense ministers in Hanoi, also next month.
As the US and ASEAN forge closer ties based on growing mutual strategic interests, the meeting of their leaders
in New York last week indicated that they are likely to proceed as partners rather than becoming allies.
Political and security issues, which usually underpin alliances between nations, are part of this evolving relationship,
but they take a backseat to economic and soft power issues, suggesting that a partnership is in the making rather
than an alliance, similar to those the US has forged with Japan and South Korea.
The rise of China as a major global power dictates that the US and ASEAN have mutual strategic interests in deepening
and intensifying their relationship. The two sides however do not necessarily see eye-to-eye on how to deal with
the potential threat of China, and this somehow defines the nature of their relationship.
The New York summit avoided making any direct references to disputes that China has had with some ASEAN member
countries because of overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. An earlier draft of the communique,
leaked to and reported by The Associated Press, had the leaders opposing the use of force in disputed waters.
This reference was struck by the time the statement reached US President Barack Obama and his ASEAN guests. The
final statement that came out of the Friday summit made a mild call for the preservation of security in international
sea lanes and for peaceful resolutions of any conflicts.
“We took care of that at the senior officials meeting,” one ASEAN diplomat said with regard to the absence of a
mention of the South China Sea disputes in the statement.
This is a significant shift from the position that US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton took during a meeting
with her ASEAN counterparts in Hanoi in July, when she virtually waded the US into the South China Sea disputes,
and staked US interests in the region by offering Washington’s mediation assistance. Beijing responded by telling
the US to stay away from the issue.
A joint statement critical of China would have given the impression that leaders meeting in New York were ganging
up on Beijing, in which case the US-ASEAN relationship would be headed towards an alliance. Instead, the statement
focused on soft power issues as the chief means of building ties.
Following the suggestion of Vice President Boediono, who represented Indonesia in New York, the leaders agreed
to focus on a short list of priorities for the US and ASEAN to work on. The three areas chosen were education,
trade and forestry.
More than anything else, the two-hour luncheon meeting was symbolic of the US commitment to engage ASEAN countries
even more. Obama took the initiative to call for the meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly after
attending the first ever ASEAN-US summit in Singapore in November 2009.
The summit “institutionalizes American engagement in ASEAN on equal footing with other major partners such as China,
India and others,” wrote Ernie Bower, the Southeast Asian specialist in the Washington-based Center for Strategic
and International Studies.
Indonesia, which will chair ASEAN in 2011, is almost certain to continue this tradition and hold the third summit.
Besides the direct benefits from the economic relations that the United States gains from its ties with Southeast
Asian countries, ASEAN is also helping Washington gain admission to the East Asia Summit (EAS), currently an annual
event involving leaders from the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.
The EAS, which is becoming the chosen mechanism to prepare for the emergence of an Asia-Pacific community, is largely
driven by ASEAN, which decides who participates and who does not. At this year’s meeting, the summit will likely
decide on admitting the United States along with Russia. Clinton will return to Hanoi next month and Obama has
already committed to making his debut at the EAS, to be held in Jakarta, in 2011.
ASEAN welcomes the increasing engagement of the United States in Southeast Asia and in the larger East Asian region,
but it wants to make sure that Washington plays by the same rules as others. Clinton signed the Instrument of Accession
to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in July, which binds the US to the promotion of peace and stability as a
precondition to joining the EAS.
ASEAN may not be a US ally in the way Japan and Korea are, but it is surely becoming an indispensable partner for
strategic US interests in Asia.
An alliance with the US would invoke memories of the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), set up in
1955 to align the US, other Western powers, Thailand and the Philippines to counter communist influence in the
region, which was then split by ideological differences.
The differences between partners and allies may not be mere semantics, for one suggests warmth and the other, more
business-like relationships. When allies meet, presumably they drink beer. When partners meet, they drink coffee.
ASEAN and the US should stick to coffee. Next time their leaders meet, they can always retreat to Starbucks.
By Ernie Z. Bower, Senior Adviser & Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program
SUMMARY
US President Barack Obama will host eight of the ten leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN)[i] in New York on Friday, September 24, 2010 at the 2nd US ASEAN Summit. The meeting underlines renewed
American policy energy being invested in Southeast Asia. Headlines from the discussion should focus on three areas:
1. Security alignment including a restatement of a common position on the South China Sea;
2. Economic growth and trade – particularly ASEAN’s leaders seeking an update from the President on the health
of the US economy and a read on whether the mid-term US Congressional elections might be an inflection point after
which the US can return to a proactive posture on trade; and
3. Burma – specifically exploring a way forward on how the US and ASEAN can encourage Burma’s leaders to introduce
political space in the November elections or beyond.
The fact the meeting is taking place in September in the United States is important in that it institutionalizes
renewed US engagement in ASEAN ahead of key steps forward in the creating of regional security and trade architecture
in Asia.
On the other hand, the fact that the Summit is taking place in New York not Washington and without the leader of
ASEAN’s largest country and economy, Indonesia, underlines the fact that while policy intent is clearly substantive
engagement, there is still much work to be done to align the US and ASEAN.
Despite the best intentions of the principles, the meeting will certainly be viewed through the prism of perceived
increased tension between China and its Asian neighbors particularly related to disputed maritime territories.
Here are some Critical Questions about the Summit and what we can expect.
Q 1 > Who, where & when – who is meeting and what is the agenda?
A 1 > President Obama will host the Summit over lunch at a famous hotel in Manhattan in New York City from 12
noon to 2:30 PM on Friday, September 24, 2010. Eight of the ten ASEAN leaders are confirmed to join him except
for President Susilio Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia and Prime Minister Thein Sein of Burma. ASEAN Secretary General
Dr. Surin Pitsuwan will also join the meeting. The only surprise is Yudhoyono’s absence and that is significant
(see below). The Burmese were not expected to send their head of state due to poor relations with the United States
and the sanctions regime currently in place. President Yudhoyono will be represented by Indonesia’s Vice President
Boediono and Prime Minister Thein Sein will be represented by Burma’s Foreign Minister U Nyan Win. The leaders
will be accompanied in most cases by their ministers of foreign affairs, ambassadors to the United States and or
the United Nations, and other senior officials.
Q2 > Why isn’t President Yudhoyono attending and what are the implications of his absence?
A2 > President Yudhuyono notified the White House that he could not accept President Obama’s invitation to come
to New York due to domestic issues that need to be attended in Jakarta. Insiders confirm that Yudhoyono decided
he could not come to New York due to a confluence of issues including the fact that President Obama has had to
postpone planned travel to Indonesia three times since taking office and the short notice given by the White House
(not quite a month in advance of the meeting). Had the Summit been scheduled in Washington, DC – America’s capital
– and in early October so Yudhoyono and the other ASEAN leaders might have been able to come on either side of
their long planned visit to Brussels for the Asia Europe Summit, the Indonesian leader would probably have come.
Yudhoyono’s absence sends a strong signal that although the US ASEAN relationship is moving in the right direction,
there is work still to be done to improve alignment. Indonesia is ASEAN’s largest country and has the largest economy,
both more than twice as large as the next member. It is also ASEAN’s incoming Chairman for 2011. It is likely that
the US and ASEAN will get back on track next year when Indonesia hosts the 3rd US ASEAN Summit, and after President
Obama finally is able to make his long-awaited visit to Indonesia. There are quiet plans for him to visit Jakarta
during his Asia trip after US mid-term elections in November. That trip would include India, Indonesia, Korea for
the G-20 Summit and Japan for the APEC Leaders Summit. In sum, Yudhoyono’s absence doesn’t fully diminish the importance
of the meeting in New York on Friday, but it lays down the marker that the US ASEAN relationship is trending well,
but remains a work in progress. I explore the gap between the US policy intentions toward ASEAN and the realities
of domestic politics revealed by Yudhoyono’s absence in the US on the CSIS Asia policy blog at http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/08/us-asean-summit-in-new-york-gut-check-time/
Q3> What is the on the security agenda and will the South China Sea be a focus?
A3 > The United States and ASEAN are working with other countries including Australia, China, India, Japan,
Korea, New Zealand and Russia to create new regional security architecture in Asia. To this end, the US and Russia
will be invited to join the East Asia Summit (EAS) this October during the EAS meeting in Hanoi. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton will represent the United States at this meeting and accept the invitation. The US will then ideally
be represented by President Obama at the next EAS hosted by Indonesia in 2011 (it is likely that the US ASEAN Summit
will be held in proximity). As part of its calculus in deciding to join the EAS, the US recognized that it must
strengthen its security and political ties with ASEAN and invest in supporting ASEAN’s self defined goals to firm
its foundation through the economic, political and socio-economic integration as outlined in the ASEAN Charter.
To this end, the US has been moving to normalize military ties with Indonesia and enhancing military relations
with Vietnam as well as committing to join the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting + 8 (which includes the same countries
listed above who are/will be members of the EAS).
In this context, one of the existential challenges for Asia is to create structures and use diplomacy to encourage
China’s peaceful rise as a major world power. The South China Sea represents a major challenge in this process.
China has been very effective in its “charm offensive” begun during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990’s
– writing a script of an engaged and committed neighbor promising economic dynamism through expanded trade and
investment and regional economic integration. However, China’s geopolitical interests are the other side of that
coin. China’s definition of its “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea in response to Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton’s reiteration of long-standing US goals for maritime dispute resolution and freedom of navigation
in the area based on international law and a multilateral approach has uncovered atavistic anxieties about China’s
intentions among the Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, ASEAN has welcomed a strong US voice on security concerns
in the South China Sea and this has come at a time, ahead of a the Chinese political cycle which will identify
the country’s next generation of leaders in 2012, of heightened nationalism in China.
Nether the US nor ASEAN want to provoke Chinese nationalists, but both recognize the importance of being firm and
sustaining a commitment to a multilateral approach to dispute resolution. Therefore, it is likely that the Summit
in New York will result in a Joint Statement that addresses the issue by reiterating the intent and direction of
Secretary Clinton’s remarks at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi with a tone of provocation or focus on China.
Q 4 > How about economic growth and trade?
A 4 > ASEAN is concerned about thehealth and direction of the US economy and hopes President Obama can assure
them that the recovery is underway and that he will be able to move the US toward a more proactive posture on trade
after the US mid-term elections in November. These issues are fundamentally important to ASEAN because the US is
its largest overseas market (particularly when you factor in the fact that many ASEAN exports go through China
as part of a supply chain that ends up with products delivered to the United States) and the US remains one of
the top and qualitatively most valuable sources of investment and technology for the region. ASEAN is collectively
the most trade dependent formal grouping of nations in the world with trade accounting for nearly 100 percent of
aggregate gross domestic product. So if trade stagnates, ASEAN is the global canary in the coal mine and its suffers
first and most significantly.
ASEAN will be watching the US Korea Free Trade Agreement closely as the benchmark indicator for whether President
Obama will use the political chits necessary to kick start trade and make the case to Americans that long term
recovery is dependent on US engagement in ASEAN, Asia and the world. ASEAN is America’s fourth largest overseas
market and one that promises high level growth for the coming years. ASEAN wants to know if the mid-term elections
will be an inflection point for the US stance on global trade. Read more on the disconnect between policy and politics
on trade with ASEAN in cogitASIA here http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/20/making-the-case-to-americans-asean-jobs/.
Q 5 > What about Burma?
A5 > With Burmese elections coming up on November 7, Burma is sure to be high on the agenda – at least for the
Americans. While ASEAN would prefer not to have to carry the weight of Burma’s cloistered and intransigent military
junta, it recognizes that having made the commitment to bring Burma into its membership it must work with the US
and others to try to encourage the creation of political space there. The Obama Administration deserves credit
for its courage and foresight in espousing an engagement strategy toward Burma that allowed it to reengage with
ASEAN and hold meetings such as this Summit. While the engagement has not produced results in Burma, the US has
changed its paradigm with ASEAN. The Administration can and likely will tighten sanctions on Burma by focusing
on its leaders, their families and companies they are associated with – measure outlined in the Lantos Act. ASEAN
needs to do its part and increase its normative focus on Burma to pressure the regime to create more political
openness to it can truly engage in the core elements of integration defined in the ASEAN Charter. If ASEAN begins
to focus on Burma, pressure may increase on China and India to refocus current mercantilist and military policies
that enable the hard-line domestic political stance of the junta and play a role as responsible stakeholders in
encouraging positive change in the country.
Q 6 > What next?
A6 > ASEAN hopes President Obama will announce his candidate to the first US Ambassador to ASEAN to be resident
in Jakarta? A candidate’s name is reportedly pending review and due diligence though it is not likely that name
can be announced on Friday. Additionally, the US and ASEAN are expecting to name an Eminent Person Group (EPG)
to provide guidance and leadership for the relationship. These names have also not been announced yet.
After the New York Summit, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in visiting Hanoi for the EAS and in October
and Secretary of Defense Gates will visit Vietnam for the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting + 8 (ADMM + 8). President
Obama is planning to visit Indonesia in November as mentioned above.
